--By Achyut Wagle
One thing that emerged as absolutely certain in recent weeks out of a series of the political exercises is: the November 19 elections to Constituent Assembly (CA) is still uncertain, not much different as it used be a year ago. The alliance of the pro-poll parties now consists five major forces after Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) of Upedra Yadav got included in the four parties’ high-level mechanism of UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Madhesi Morcha. Even if the strategy of these pro-poll parties to ‘hold elections at any cost’ works at all, and CA election is ‘somehow’ made possible, next certain thing is: the CA constituted by relegating some unpredictable forces like CPN-Maoist of Mohan Baidya and his associates, can neither write nor promulgate the new constitution.
It is not a surprise that the pro-poll parties were unable to make the Baidya-led coalition of 33 parties, largely a misnomer, agree for the polls. Mainly because, Baidya never wanted to ‘fall into the abyss of capitalist democracy’ by being part of the elections, any elections, for the dogma of anti-parliamentarism he holds so close to his chest. He understands that even if he participated in these polls, performance of his faction is sure to be so dismal; it may be completely obliterated at least in the first-past-the-post phase of the CA elections. Instead, his political hoax of clout without testing in the ballots is larger than the reality. The most crucial point is that all maneuverings and gimmicks of Baidya politics is aimed at teaching a lesson or two to the chief of his mother party, UCPN (Maoist), comrade Puspa Kamal Dahal. Therefore, Baidya is betting more and assenting less. He calculates that the moment Dahal picks the candidates to contest in his party ticket, there will be a large contingent of disgruntled aspirants who fail to bag the election tickets. And, those are likely to join the Baidya’s force. At least, he expects so. And, whether his party participates in the polls or not, he has the plans and capacity to drag the feet of the Dahal nominees.
Another reason those orchestrated parleys were sure not to bear any fruit, mainly in convincing Baidya and others under his umbrella is that the UCPN (Maoist) and its Chairman Dahal do not want Baidya to contest the elections, taking a separate party identity and election symbol. It is a well understood reality that this phenomenon is likely to have telling adverse effect in the election performance of Dahal’s party. So, Dahal, if possible wanted to re-unify the party bringing Baidya in. If not, he wants the break-away faction to really boycott the CA election in real sense, not meddling into defeating its friend-turned-foes, so that even the rational Baidya supporters can come and vote for the UCPN candidate. On the practical ground, the intentions of Baidya and Dahal have the same effect, of distancing away from each other, making the polls more uncertain.
Had there been strategic thinking, the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML would have made the utmost possible effort to bring Baidya to the elections fold as a separate political party. As things stand today, even delaying the poll by few months wouldn’t have made any significant difference to these two. That would have given both of them a favourable contest as two Maoists engaged themselves in mutual fights. But, both of these parties, as has been said umpteen times before, now lack leadership, direction and efficacy, and mired by serious degree of infighting, thus, look indifferent to possible gains or losses in the election.
Other smaller parties have no influence to set political agenda. But, MJF Chairman Upendra Yadav made other four major parties to accept to increase the number of CA seats to 586 from earlier agreed 491. This in fact was not the political success of Yadav alone, because every other party was also looking for an excuse to increase the number of CA seats and, Yadav came as their saviour.
There are other forces than the political alone who desperately want this election to take place in November than in any other later dates. Our southern neighbour India wants it now because, it has a scheduled parliamentary election next year. If dates collided, her strategists and politicians will not be able to concentrate on Nepal’s election to help the parties and candidates of her choice. Keener are other ‘friends from donor community’ who want to come with a small purse, big talk and even bigger intention of meddling in our politics. Many of their political, electoral, constitutional and peace building experts are now rendered unemployed. Many NGOs funded by them are workless, thereby shadowed. Many high profile foreign dignitaries who want to make paid holiday trip to Nepal are restless. If election is held, CA constituted and new government formed, they will have a real role to play ‘to support’ Nepal. But for ordinary Nepali, it hardly makes any difference whether elections are held now, six months or a year later. In fact, it is better to hold these elections later than sooner, if that postponement ensures better inclusion of all parties and increases possibility of writing the constitution.
Apart from the debate and uncertainty over the upcoming CA elections, an indication of a beginning of the process of rationalization in the UCPN-Maoists was a welcome development. The party that has vehemently campaigned for ‘ethnicity-based provinces’ while federalizing the nation, now seems to be changing its stance. The party vice-president and ideologue Dr Baburam Bhattarai created a sort of political ripples through his blog in the last week of August. He wrote that the restructuring should be based on economic viability, not purely on the ethnic identity.
These sorts of rationalization and softening on their conservative, long-held stances increase the possibility of a functional constitution being delivered by the new CA, whenever it gets a rebirth. But, Bhattarai’s views are yet to be made official by the party and similar transformation is required in other number of issues like expressing the party’s unconditional belief on multi-party democracy and contemporaneously acceptable economic philosophy; including production-distribution perspective.
The other signals from the party, however, are not that optimistic. In the same week, Party President Dahal inaugurated the first ‘production brigade’ of the party in Pokhara. It is deemed as a new form of the labour camp that every communist outfit in theoretical sense is considered incomplete without. This apprehension has some basis as this brigade is created at a time when the country putatively gears up for CA elections and scope of producing anything by this political brigade is very very thin.
The proposed CA election, though only little more than two months left for the scheduled date, still hinges between the proverbial devil and the deep sea. The idea of holding the elections without bringing potentially violent and miscreant forces like that of Baidya and his allies is sure to create insurmountable hurdles in every stage of holding the elections, functionalizing the CA process and ultimately writing and promulgating the constitution. At this point, there is no time, intention and practical scope to take along these forces in the elections. The Election Commission cannot reopen the registration of the political parties again if elections were to be held in November. It is also the fact that Baidya and company have given some indications of mellowing down on their earlier stances. But, if they are pushed to the wall instead of giving some political space they deserved, it will only create more deadlocks and less free passages to the country’s political process, to take it out of extenuatingly prolonged transition.
Hopes of better Nepal are still alive but they are hopelessly feeble. Only good faith among the existing parties instead of interplay of ignominious intensions is the first required step to strengthen this little flicker of hope.
(The writer is former editor of Aarthik Abhiyan National Daily.)
