BY Purushottam Ojha
From the 1980s, Nepal gradually found itself facing food shortages as domestic food production failed to keep pace with the growing population. An insufficient supply of agricultural inputs, including fertilisers and seeds, along with a significant exodus of the young workforce seeking employment abroad, land fragmentation, and the repurposing of agricultural land for activities like housing construction and urban expansion, had a direct and adverse impact on agricultural production in the country. Consequently, Nepal gradually transitioned into becoming a net importer of food.
Consider the case of rice production. The total paddy output in 1991/92 stood at 3.22 million metric tonnes, which subsequently increased to 5.6 million metric tonnes over a span of three decades. Similarly, the overall population of the country grew from 18.5 million to 29.2 million, marking a 62% increase. This led to a steady upsurge in the consumption of food grains required for nourishing the additional population, as well as to provide feed for livestock and poultry, along with raw materials for agro-based industries. The import of agricultural products gained significant momentum in order to fulfil the escalating demand for food and feed. In the fiscal year 2022/23, the import of agricultural products accounted for 18% of the country's total imports. Among these imports, vegetable oil held the foremost position, with a total value of Rs 86.8 billion, followed by paddy/rice at Rs 36.6 billion, maize at Rs 17.2 billion, vegetables excluding potatoes at Rs 24 billion, and potatoes amounting to Rs 7.9 billion. Similarly, fruits and nuts with a total value of Rs 20.6 billion were imported into the country.
The Government of Nepal has been actively implementing the Agriculture Development Strategy (2015-35) alongside the Prime Minister Agriculture Modernization Plan (PMAMP), which operates as a complementary initiative. These plans are driven by ambitious objectives to eliminate hunger and foster sustainable growth within the agricultural sector. The overarching strategy outlines a timeline: achieving self-sufficiency in vegetable production within a year, attaining the same for major cereal crops within three years, and realising similar progress for fruits over a span of seven years. However, a closer examination of the annual import statistics for these products highlights a discrepancy in relation to the stated goals.
Paddy, maize, wheat, and millet stand as the staple foods that nourish people throughout the three distinct geographical regions of the country. In the mountainous areas, barley, buckwheat, and potatoes commonly complement the primary diet. Seasonal fruits like citrus, apple, walnut, mango, and banana contribute to nutritional diversity. The diet is further supplemented by seasonal vegetables and animal products such as milk, yoghurt, eggs, meat, and fish, albeit predominantly within middle-income households. Unfortunately, the economically disadvantaged segment of the population largely relies on cereal consumption and struggles to access alternative sources of protein, vitamins, and mineral-rich foods.
The government has been implementing the Agriculture Development Strategy (2015-35) alongside the Prime Minister Agriculture Modernization Plan (PMAMP) as its subsidiary plan. These plans are driven by ambitious objectives to eliminate hunger and foster sustainable growth within the agricultural sector. The overarching strategy outlines a timeline: achieving self-sufficiency in vegetable production within a year, attaining the same for major cereal crops within three years, and realising similar progress for fruits over a span of seven years. However, a closer examination of the annual import statistics for these products highlights a discrepancy in relation to the stated goals.
Paddy, maize, wheat and millet are the staple foods across the three geographical regions of the country. In the mountainous areas, barley, buckwheat, and potatoes commonly complement the primary diet. Seasonal fruits like citrus, apple, walnut, mango, and banana contribute to nutritional diversity. The diet is further supplemented by seasonal vegetables and animal products such as milk, yoghurt, eggs, meat, and fish, albeit predominantly within middle-income households. The economically disadvantaged segment of the population largely relies on cereal consumption and struggles to access alternative sources of protein, vitamins, and mineral-rich foods.
Supply Chain Disruptions
The global supply chain for consumables and food supply has faced significant disruptions over the past few years, primarily attributed to three key factors. Firstly, the US-China trade war, instigated by President Trump in 2018 through the imposition of high tariffs and trade restrictions on numerous products imported from China. This led to reciprocal measures from China, resulting in punitive tariffs on US goods like soybeans, pork, beef, corn, and more. Consequently, this led to price hikes in consumer goods and food items in both countries, with ripple effects felt across international markets. Second, the Covid-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to global supply chains. The lockdowns and disruptions in transportation systems associated with the pandemic led to a severe halt in economic and social activities, causing further strain on the supply chain network. Third, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began in February 2022, had a significant impact on the import of critical commodities such as wheat, barley, sunflower and soybean oil, fertilisers, and rare metals from these conflicting nations. This conflict led to the blockade of essential imports, including around 25 million metric tonnes of wheat and grains held in Ukrainian silos. A resolution was brokered under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in 2022, facilitated by Turkey and the United Nations, which eased the outflow of grain from Ukrainian ports. However, Russia's recent withdrawal from this agreement has once again disrupted the supply of grain from Ukraine, prompting the country to explore alternative transportation options such as the Danube River ports.
Anticipating the potential impact of global food shortages, the Indian government has imposed restrictions on the export of coarse rice. Similar restriction was made early last year for wheat exports with exceptions for neighbouring countries. Nepal finds itself at the brink of food insecurity. The World Food Program Report (WFP-2023) has highlighted heightened food insecurity in Nepal during 2022, with one in seven households lacking sufficient food to meet their daily needs. The situation is not likely to improve this year. The government is now faced with the daunting task of addressing these challenges to ensure an adequate food supply and prevent an impending food crisis.
What can the government do?
A sustainable approach to mitigate the potential food crisis involves enhancing the production and productivity of agriculture, particularly major food crops. Given the current constraints, such as limited available land for cultivation and its usage for industrial purposes, expanding the coverage area for crops is not feasible. Instead, a viable option is intensifying cultivation by adopting double or triple cropping patterns tailored to the diverse climatic zones within the country. Ensuring timely availability of agricultural inputs like seeds, fertilisers, agro-chemicals, as well as the provision of irrigation facilities and a crop insurance program are a must to enhance productivity. Likewise, the operational approach of existing agricultural support programs should be revisited, as reports indicate the misallocation of budgeted funds. The benefits intended for genuine farmers are often doled out to political party cadres instead.
There is also a need to change the food habits of the people to ensure access to food and proper nutrition. While rice remains a staple across all geographical regions, promoting alternate nutrient-rich foods like buckwheat, millet, barley, corn, and potatoes in mountainous areas can help diversify diets. Additionally, high-value products such as beans, cabbage, apples, and apricots from regions like Jumla and Mustang could be marketed at premium prices in urban areas. Encouraging a balanced diet that combines cereals, vegetables, meat, and dairy based on local resources can dissipate the fear of food insecurity, particularly in far flung areas.
The immediate food insufficiency can be addressed by implementing provisions within the bilateral trade treaty with India. The protocol of the treaty has made it mandatory to allow goods export under quotas to counter export restrictions by either party. Additionally, the SAARC food bank presents an avenue for emergency food supply when needed.
The government should adopt a two-pronged approach to address food supply and food security issues. First, there should be a focus on increasing the production of staple crops in all three geographical regions. Second, attention should be directed towards high-value agriculture in mountainous areas. The cultivation of products like medicinal herbs, vegetables, fruits, honey, large cardamom, ginger, and pulses could contribute to enhanced export trade. This endeavour should be complemented by facilitating access to neighbouring markets through the removal of trade barriers and supported by seamless connectivity. This would not only secure domestic food supply but also promote sustainable export trade.
(Ojha is the former Secretary of the Government of Nepal)
