Israel-Hamas War a 'New Cloud' Over World Economy: IMF

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Israel-Hamas War a 'New Cloud' Over World Economy: IMF

October 13: The war between Israel and Hamas has cast a shadow over the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Morocco, with warnings that it has darkened the outlook for an already sluggish global economy, AFP reported.

According to the French news agency, the global lenders are holding their gathering, which brings together finance ministers and central bankers from around the world, in an Arab country for the first time in 20 years.

The conflict, which erupted when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a bloody attack on Israel from Gaza on Saturday, has raised concerns about its potential impact on the world economy.

Speaking at a press conference in Marrakesh, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the International Monetary Fund was "very closely monitoring how the situation evolves" and how it is affecting oil markets.

AFP quoted Georgieva as saying that it was "too early" to assess the impact of the conflict, but "this is a new cloud on not the sunniest horizon for the world economy -- new cloud, darkening this horizon."

Georgieva noted that the IMF's World Economic Outlook, which was released earlier this week but drafted before the conflict broke out, already showed weak global growth.

The global economy's recovery from the Covid pandemic has been hit by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, elevated inflation and high interest rates.

"Unfortunately, far too many countries and communities are affected by natural disasters, and worse by wars in Ukraine and now in the Middle East that cause tragic loss of civilian lives and tremendous suffering," AFP quoted Georgieva as saying.

"We mourn the victims," she added.

"We are experiencing severe shocks that are now becoming the new normal for a world that is weakened by weak growth and economic fragmentation."

According to AFP, the IMF has kept its growth forecast a 3.0 percent for this year but lowered it to 2.9 percent for 2024, warning that the economy is "limping along, not sprinting."

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said Tuesday that IMF research shows that a 10 percent increase in oil prices could weigh down on global growth by 0.15 percentage points and increase inflation by 0.4 percentage points.

The International Energy Agency said on Thursday the risk of oil supply disruptions due to the war is limited but that it stands ready to intervene in markets if necessary.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, said oil prices remain lower than in September.

While it is difficult to have a "clear reading" about the conflict's economic impact, Azour said, the situation is "big, it's an earthquake."

 

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